From shifts in labor challenges, strategic planning, and consolidations, to the rise of AI, and continued investment in sophisticated technology to help make operations safer and more profitable, the industry has continued to evolve into a more efficient, data driven business.
Looking back on 2025, what are the significant changes you have seen over the past year in the waste and recycling industry?
Paul Ross: 2025 continued to push the industry toward being more data-driven, more transparent, and more accountable. We saw a real shift from simply moving material efficiently to managing it more intelligently—using technology to improve routing, reduce contamination, increase recovery, and better understand what’s actually in the waste stream. There’s also been a noticeable change in how customers view us: not just as a service provider, but as a partner in sustainability, compliance, and community impact. At American 91˛Öżâ Control, we introduced four new platforms across our company to better help us provide service and real time data to not only our leadership team, but also our customers.
David Biderman: Some of the most significant changes were in the legislative and regulatory arena in Washington D.C. The “Big Beautiful Bill” provides for a permanent 100 percent bonus depreciation of certain capital expenses—including trucks and other equipment. It extended the deductibility of interest payments, and extended the clean fuels tax credit through 2029, which helps landfill gas and RNG projects. At the regulatory level, the EPA eliminated most of the clean energy tax credits established by the Inflation Reduction Act and is narrowing or reversing several regulatory actions (e.g., PFAS).
Will Flower: Looking back on 2025, the waste and recycling industry experienced several meaningful shifts driven by regulation, legislation, economics, technology, and customer expectations. The changes weren’t revolutionary, but collectively they marked a clear acceleration of long-term trends. The high costs associated with delivering services remained high and there was additional headwind as the value of curbside recyclables fell significantly throughout the year. Overall, we saw that organizations that invested in technology, people, and disciplined operations pulled ahead of competitors.
Bryan Staley: Artificial intelligence was a big focus in 2025. Seeing the evolution of industry perspectives in early 2025, where companies are trying to figure out how to use it, and then getting into late 2025, where you are starting to see the conversation materialize into we’re starting to use it now for X,Y, and Z—to me, that was probably one of the things that most evolved. Other ongoing issues included PFAS, fires, and emissions. In addition, extended producer responsibility continues to evolve, and I think one of the things that we figured out in 2025 is that although a lot of people talk about EPR we really don’t know a whole lot about how effective it could be. Every evaluation so far looks to other countries and there are some similarities, but the U.S. is still very different in terms of how we practically manage waste and how consumers manage their waste and make choices. Finally, a research topic that we thought had gone by the wayside, re-emerged due to some of the weather situations that emerged out on the West Coast—the elevated temperature of landfills.
Rachel Oster: 2025 felt like the year where a lot of abstract ideas finally started to become real. We’ve talked about circular economy and EPR for years, but this past year the conversation really shifted to implementation. People are asking much more practical questions now like who’s responsible, how data gets tracked, how costs flow, and what this actually looks like on the ground for operators and communities. I also think data became impossible to ignore in 2025. Whether it’s cameras on trucks, AI in MRFs, or more sophisticated reporting requirements, the industry is realizing that you can’t manage what you can’t measure.
Mike Fernandez: In the past year, I think disposal capacity has become more of a strategic asset due to scarcity of landfills, which are tough to be sited or permitted today. However, I have noticed in regions that are heavily populated, like the South Florida market, landfills are filling up, and I think that’s one of the things that a lot of companies are after—disposal assets, which is a significant change game changer in the industry. Due to COVID several years ago, we saw a reset on recycling. Before it was all about volume, now it’s about addressing contamination and having good quality recyclables. With the uncertainty of the commodities, more than ever you want to make your dollar on the cleanest product you get. The industry largely moved past chasing tonnage and refocused on quality, end-market certainty, and contract structure. Labor was also a big driver. Automation carted collection, route optimization, and MRF robotics—shifted from “innovation” to baseline expectation. Wages are very competitive, with smaller hauling trucks and vans that can be driven without needing a CDL. More companies are investing in systems training and retention. They are understanding that labor is no longer about finding new people on a cyclical basis, now it’s more about long term commitment and keeping employees. Here at 91˛Öżâ Pro, we do internal training and have even developed a Leadership Development Program to invest in our future leaders. We are investing in our employees by putting them in the driver’s seat as part of the promotion process. I think you not only have to invest in your people, but also in trucks with the most up to date technology.
Clay Layne: 2025 was a very transformative year in the waste and recycling industry. In my opinion, the the willingness to accept and adopt technology was a major change. More AI-powered sorting systems in MRF’s, safety technology on heavy equipment, and robotics and automation helped with the dwindling labor force. Electric and low emission fleets expanded and many companies continued to adopt sustainability as a core business strategy.
Do you think that we will see a lot of activity in the area of mergers and acquisitions in 2026?
PR: Yes, I do. Rising operational costs, regulatory complexity, and the need for capital investment in equipment, technology and infrastructure will continue to drive consolidation. That said, there’s still a very important role for strong, independent, regional companies that know their markets, their customers, and their communities. The next phase of M&A will likely be less about scale for scale’s sake and more about strategic fit.
DB: I think there will continue to be a high level of M&A activity in 2026, as buyers continue to opportunistically pursue tuck in haulers to feed their disposal facilities. As in recent years, a growing number of companies are seeking acquisitions, including both solid waste companies and private equity. Something to keep an eye on is whether the federal government’s pro-business interpretation of the antitrust laws encourages certain acquisitions among larger players, similar to WM’s acquisition of Advanced Disposal.
WF: Yes, we will continue to see strategic consolidation—similar to what we saw over the past 12 months. I think we will see the strongest M&A activity in fast-growing metro markets. As always, asset quality, route density, customer mix, and environmental compliance will be key factors that command premium valuations. So, sellers with clean financials, strong municipal contracts, and modern equipment and facilities should expect strong valuations.
RO: Yes, I do. I don’t think M&A is slowing down anytime soon. What’s interesting to me, though, is that it’s not just about buying routes and density anymore it’s about buying capabilities. We’re seeing more focus on specialized services, environmental solutions, and companies that help manage regulatory or operational risk. WM’s purchase of Stericycle is a great example because it shows how major players are investing in specialized, highly regulated services to manage risk, not just grow volume.
There’s also still a lot of capital looking for a home, and waste and recycling continues to be seen as a stable, essential industry. I expect 2026 to bring more strategic acquisitions like this especially around recycling infrastructure, and technology-enabled operations.
Sean Jennings: While 2025 was still an active M&A year, I do believe that 2026 should be greater than 2025. There were some sponsor backed businesses that did not reach the sale price they wanted, and I expect those to return to market this year. As well, we have seen the continued C&D slow down, especially in Florida, and that may put pressure on the C&D focused businesses to sell.
MF: I think we saw a lot of acquisitions happen throughout 2025. It remained really strong. We saw a lot of organizations going after not only other companies, but also disposal assets like I mentioned in order to improve their margins. Over the last few years, we saw some of our competitors make some strategic asset moves with rather large acquisitions. 91˛Öżâ Pro was also active in 2025 with $170M in acquisitions. We crossed over into the industrial line of business and portable toilets complementing our core business of waste collection. I think what you saw in 2025 marks a shift from growth at all costs to a more disciplined acquisitions, and I think that shift is going to continue into 2026.
CL: I think M&A will continue to be strong in 2026. Companies will continue to expand service areas, increase route density and grow through M&A. Private equity also continues to expand in waste.
AI has now taken center stage in the industry. As more organizations are implementing/considering AI, do you think that this will be an essential tool to advance waste and recycling forward?
PR: Absolutely—but as a tool, not a replacement for people or experience. AI is already helping to improve routing, fleet maintenance, safety monitoring, and material identification at MRFs. The real opportunity is using AI to reduce inefficiencies, improve decision-making, and make operations safer and more sustainable. When it’s paired with strong leadership and frontline expertise, that’s where it becomes powerful.
DB: AI is already being used as an essential tool. It’s being used to help keep drivers safe on the route, to identify dangerous items in trucks when they arrive at disposal facilities, and to identify non-recyclable material at recycling facilities. I recently spoke to the CEO of a California-based company that provides AI-based solutions for customers interested in diverting more waste away from disposal. AI is increasingly embedded in our daily lives, including in the waste and recycling industry.
WF: Artificial intelligence and robotics moved from pilot projects to standard upgrades in many recycling factories. AI-driven optical sorters improved fiber and plastic recovery rates and reduced labor dependency. At the same time, fleet telematics, route optimization, and camera systems became more sophisticated and more widely adopted, improving safety and profitability. Expect to see even more AI benefits in 2026.
BS: As long as AI has been adopted into the solid waste field, the recycling side of the house is where we’ve seen AI have the fastest integration, largely because of the shift towards robotic sorting, optical sorting technologies, and so forth. When you look at robotics and automation, computer vision tools, machine learning, those kinds of technologies have long been used in the recycling field, so they are already well adapted for implementation of AI algorithms. Wiring AI into their programs has helped improve sorting efficiency and identify contaminants, etc. What we’ve seen in terms of growth beyond recycling has been using AI for collection and optimization—that’s probably the second area of growth. Then there are other applications that are a bit more obscure, like evaluating data-driven policy, waste energy and organics management, etc. For example, using AI to control anaerobic digestion facilities because they can be they can be challenging to operate, but if you have AI that can adapt some of the some of the levers that get pulled in real time, you can really enhance the efficiency of anaerobic digestion unit. 91˛Öżâ generation prediction is another area where AI can come in as a policy tool or corporate tool. You can look at a community’s specific growth rate and based off population growth, you can estimate how many trucks you need in the next five years. Finally using AI for back of house operations, such call centers, customer support billing, invoicing, HR management, customer, etc. are all areas where AI is becoming fairly dominant.
RO: I believe in AI accelerating innovation, but I don’t think AI is the “solution” by itself. Where AI really shines is in helping us see what’s actually happening in the system. It gives operators real insight into what’s in the stream, where contamination is coming from, and where safety risks are showing up.
That kind of visibility is huge, especially as we move into EPR and performance-based systems. AI becomes the tool that supports smarter decisions. This doesn’t have to be just in facilities, but in collection, education, and program design. Used well, AI is a game changer.
SJ: It is too early to tell if the AI tools are essential or just nice to have. Once AI can help create safer drivers through more effective on-time coaching and driver assistance, then it will be essential. Until then we should see tools to help increase sales productivity and other administrative tasks.
MF: I think it’s going be a part of the business and if you don’t jump on board, you’re going be left in the dark. I don’t think AI replaces people, but it will make the process more efficient. It’s already in a little bit of everything. For example, for hauling you are going to get better optimization by avoiding traffic, missed stops, and tracking overloads. As result, you recognize fewer miles and lower labor hours. While there have been optimization tools available, when you throw AI on that, it is always learning and making the adjustments. It doesn’t replace people, but I think it does help give organizations that competitive edge. It helps to build safety data and review driver habits. AI also is coming into play when a load is dumped into a hopper—you can analyze the mix of recyclables and find contamination at its source. We are already seeing AI at MRFs with optical sorters, where they can get into understanding material identification—you can see changes in your stream, your contamination rate, and figure out what is happening real time. This year, 91˛Öżâ Pro is rolling out a telematics system that incorporates cameras with AI technology on our yellow iron, so it will notify the operator if there are people and/or obstacles around the machine.
How have you seen refuse trucks continue to be improved upon? Is there anything in particular that stood out in 2025?
PR: Today’s trucks are smarter, cleaner, and safer than ever. We’ve seen major advancements in alternative fuels, electric and hybrid platforms, onboard cameras, collision-avoidance systems, and real-time diagnostics. These improvements reduce emissions, increase uptime, and most importantly, help protect our drivers and the public. At the same time, there’s something to be respected about the trucks from the 1980s, 90s, and early 2000s. They were built tough, simpler by design, and many ran for decades because of skilled mechanics and operators who knew their equipment inside and out.
What we’re seeing today is the best of both worlds — blending that old-school durability and pride in craftsmanship with modern technology that makes the job safer, more efficient, and more sustainable. In many ways, the evolution of the truck mirrors the evolution of our industry. What stood out most was how interconnected everything has become—technology, regulation, safety, sustainability, and workforce challenges are no longer separate conversations. Decisions in one area directly impact the others, and the companies that are thinking holistically are the ones best positioned for long-term success.
We saw that firsthand this year through projects like integrating an apiary with Up With Bees at our American Environmental Landfill. What started as an environmental initiative became something much bigger—supporting pollinators, engaging employees, educating the community, and reinforcing the idea that sustainability isn’t just about infrastructure, it’s about mindset. That kind of cross-functional thinking is becoming more important across the entire industry.
WF: Recently, I had the opportunity to inspect and drive a brand-new truck. I was most impressed with the overall improvements in the cab including better visibility, reduced noise, improved HVAC, simpler controls, and more comfortable seating. I think trucks are being built to reduce fatigue and make the job more attractive. I was also impressed with the telematics and diagnostics that are on new trucks. The real-time vehicle health monitoring and predictive maintenance will help keep trucks running and hopefully help to control vehicle maintenance costs.
BS: There are a lot of technologies now that are being implemented on trucks. However, it is probably more continued enhancement than it is brand new. Many trucks now have certain tools installed that can capture data and that data is reported up into the cloud to the vendor and they are providing real-time feedback on what’s going on either to the fleet manager or even, in some cases, back to the driver themselves. Another aspect when it comes to refuse trucks is how they are being used. EREF tracked this in part of our collaboration with the NRWA. We looked at the types of fuel that are that are being used for trucks, and we continue to see an increasing use of RNG/CNG fuel. Electric is increasing but it’s still minuscule. Last year we saw a conversation around hydrogen as a potential fuel source that popped up and popped back off the radar. I don’t think that conversation is necessarily going away but at this point in time, there needs to be a bit more evolution in the concept for people to begin to take it more seriously. Another interesting thing is a significant shift towards non-CDL trucks when the application is appropriate, and I think this has to do with the labor issues. It’s easier to hire somebody who is a good driver but doesn’t have their CDL, than it would be for somebody who has a CDL. So we’ve seen some cities shift their truck types from CDL-based trucks to non-CDL based trucks. For example, in the city of Wilmington NC, most of their trucks in the urban areas of the city are small non-CDL trucks.
RO: What stood out to me in 2025 was how trucks are becoming smarter, not just cleaner or more fuel-efficient. We’re seeing a lot more camera systems, safety tech, and data collection built directly into trucks.
MF: Truck safety systems with AI technology are no longer optional, they are becoming a standard. I think you’re going to see refuse trucks evolve to more “smart” trucks with camera system AI detection for pedestrians and more alerts. I personally think it keeps the driver alert at all times because when you are out there in the in that element, you want to avoid a fatality and/or accident at all costs. There will also be improved driver productivity, plus telematics will give us a lot of data in order to understand what’s happening out there as well as being able to predict maintenance alerts and idling time. I also think cab design and automation will keep evolving. From improved ergonomics for faster and smoother arm cycles, to comfort and better cab visibility.
There is a growing trend of textile recycling concerns. What are some of the other recycling trends that you saw in 2025?
PR: Battery safety, food waste diversion, organics, construction and demolition recycling, and extended producer responsibility discussions all gained momentum in 2025. We’re also seeing more focus on contamination reduction and consumer education, because without clean material, even the best recycling systems struggle.
DB: EPR took center stage in 2025 as different states moved ahead with the multi-year process of implementing Extended Producer Responsibility. The Circular Action Alliance (CAA) is dominating the EPR space as the Producer Responsibility Organization (PRO) administering each state’s EPR program, and from all reports, is doing an excellent job managing the process and the diverse set of stakeholders.
The renewed interest in food waste diversion continued in 2025. Food waste is a larger component of the waste stream than plastic and diverting food waste to composting or anaerobic digestion also substantially reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Keep an eye on Massachusetts, which was the first state in the country to enact a partial food waste disposal ban. They intend to expand this regulation to encompass all commercial establishments, and also eventually much of the residential waste generators.
RO: Textiles are definitely a hot topic in the EPR space, and for good reason. Textiles are complex, the volumes are growing, and the system isn’t really built for them yet. But they’re not the only material raising big questions and challenges.
In 2025, we also saw continued pressure around material quality. Buyers want cleaner bales, programs want fewer headaches, and EPR is going to amplify that. Batteries embedded in products are another huge issue—they are showing up everywhere and creating safety risks across the system.
BS: If we go back to 2000 and we look at just waste generation, textiles alone had the largest average annual increase per year of any waste component that went into to trash cans—4.6 percent per year on average since 2000. That is substantial given the other increases we’ve been seeing for other waste components like plastics, metals and food, which have been averaging 1 1/2 to 2 percent per year increases. That tells us that textiles are on the move when it comes to being a part of the waste stream and we’ve done some work on this related to the rise of fast fashion and how that’s been a significant contributor to textiles ending up in the waste stream. These clothes are cheaper, they tend to be poorly made. Much of it tends to be blended fabrics, which is natural fiber and a synthetic fiber blended together, so when it comes to recycling those textiles, that’s where the challenge lies because you’ve got a cotton fiber next to the polyester and in order to effectively recycle them, you have to separate them. Some of the research that EREF funded recently is a project through one of our scholars as well as NC State University. It looked at how we can effectively separate the different types of fabrics in a way that allows for them to be recovered because you could certainly recycle that synthetic fiber, but it has to be separated from that cotton fiber. So, the research looked at some approaches using enzymes to break down the cotton fibers and separate them from the synthetic in order to recycle it. Then, the cotton could be used for an anaerobic digestion setup.
In terms of other recycling trends, there continues to be composting operations concerns regarding PFAS as a potential contaminant, which will reduce the diversion levels. Glass has always been challenge but one of the interesting trends that I would predict if we continue to see PFAS in a lot of packaging, is as consumers become more aware of PFAS, they could very well consider changing some of their packaging choices and go back to glass. It will be interesting to see how those trends bear out. We also continue to see significant changes in the waste stream going to the landfill. One of the largest materials going to landfill today in terms of potentially convertible material would be food waste and that continues to be a rising percentage of landfilled waste, which means we’re really not diverting food waste very well. Plastic has always been a challenge and I would argue that from a recycling standpoint that plastic has probably the greatest opportunity, but you’re also starting to see a lot of concerns with microplastics and so that to me is a 2026 and beyond conversation because the public discourse on microplastics is not going away; it’s growing. I think that’s going to certainly influence some conversations moving forward.
CL: AI-driven sorting is more mainstream now. Packaging EPR has gotten more focus with the aim of producers taking on more financial responsibility. We are also seeing packaging redesign for recyclability and new funding streams for recycling infrastructure. States with EPR laws saw early shifts in material flows and MRF economics. Performance sustainability became a strategic framework with carbon reduction initiatives, circular economy investments, renewable energy integration, and ESG‑driven reporting.
What do you think regulations will look like in 2026? What are some industry initiatives to keep an eye on?
PR: Regulations will likely continue to focus on emissions, landfill diversion, battery handling, and producer responsibility, along with increased reporting requirements and transparency expectations. We’re also seeing growing attention around emerging contaminants like PFAS, particularly as it relates to disposal methods, environmental monitoring, and long-term liability considerations.
Industry initiatives around battery stewardship, standardized labeling, PFAS research and management strategies, and expanded public education will be critical to keeping systems safe, compliant, and functional. Collaboration between regulators, manufacturers, and operators will be essential to ensure these evolving regulations are both effective and practical for the communities we serve.
DB: There will be very few new federal regulations impacting the solid waste industry in 2026. However, as in the first Trump Administration (2017-2021), some states will respond by enacting new laws or regulations. EPR, landfill gas regulation, and PFAS are three areas to monitor, especially in coastal/progressive states. In addition, the waste industry and others will continue to urge Congress to carve out an exemption for “passive receivers” of PFAS at facilities.
WF: I’m hopeful that organics and food waste programs expand in 2026. While not even close to universal, organics programs continued to expand in urban and suburban markets. Here in the Greater New York Metropolitan Market, we saw commercial generators adopted food waste separation due to new laws. Corporate sustainability goals and rising disposal costs also contributed to the interest and growth of organics management. Composting and anaerobic digestion capacity is needed. However, permitting, financing and siting remained major constraints.
BS: I think the biggest shift we saw last year was from federal-based policy making to state-based policy making with the administration change. However, the one area of regulation that it appears the federal government has held on to is PFAS. That is going to continue to move forward on the federal front. A lot of states are looking at PFAS regulations around sludges going to landfills, land application, etc. Packaging legislation is another issue that some states have acted on. EREF is doing a study right now at the University of Waterloo in Canada that is evaluating PFAS concentrations in packaging and compostable feedstocks—one of the things we’re curious to know is if they’re seeing a change in PFAS concentrations that are in the packaging because, theoretically, if there was a voluntary removal of PFAS, we should see that translated into packaging, but nonetheless the states continue to be focused on how do we manage PFAS. While landfill emissions in terms of policymaking has all but effectively ceased at this point in time, states like Colorado and California are taking up that conversation around landfill emissions and Canada is very active as well. A lot of it is focused on the direct measurement aspect of emissions reporting—can we use technologies like drones or satellites to effectively measure emissions? Can we identify and fix that issue and can we use the data that comes from directly measuring emissions and use this to create an annual estimate of what the emissions footprint looks like for that site? Can we achieve a suite of technologies that work under most conditions that you could deploy nationally, and would allow for easier reporting from a state-by-state basis?
RO: I think 2026 will be a mix of acceleration and growing pains. EPR programs will move further into implementation mode, and that’s where things get complicated. Definitions, data requirements, cost allocation, and enforcement all start to matter a lot more.
From an industry perspective, battery safety initiatives and guidance are going to be really important, as well as efforts to bring more consistency across state programs.
SJ: Generally, we will see further tightening of PFAS regulation and general environmental regulation adding operational and equipment cost. There has been increased federal regulation for employment related agencies and how they affect business operation. While we did experience a brief improvement in Tort Reform, some improvement was rolled back after attorney pushback. Both federal employment agencies and personal injury attorneys will remain and increased factor in 2026.
MF: It was tough in 2025, and I think it’s going to get tougher in 2026. I think you’re going see tighter regulation. For example, on the landfill side, in some places like California they are using satellite imaging to detect methane emissions. I think you’re going to see more of that elsewhere. We are going to see greater emphasis on methane detection and more scrutiny on leachate, especially with PFAS. We will see faster enforcement timelines from the regulatory agencies because of the pressure from the community and from other environmental advocates. I think methane and air quality are going to be a key factors in the regulatory compliance.
CL: Packaging EPR will expand and intensify. I belive that landfill emissions and permitting rules will get stricter with more methane monitoring, stricter flare and gas capture requirements, as well as mandatory organics diversion in more states. Hazardous waste tracking will modernize and it is being reported that the EPA will phase out paper hazardous waste manifest. This will drive the industry to full electronic reporting in 2026.
How important is it to use the right recruitment strategies to the next generation? How can retiring or seasoned professionals mentor those that are coming into the industry?
PR: It’s essential. The next generation is looking for more than a paycheck—they want purpose, growth, and a clear path forward. Recruitment today has to reflect that by showing not just what we do, but why it matters and how someone can build a long-term, meaningful career in this industry.
Mentorship plays a huge role in making that real. At American 91˛Öżâ Control, we’ve been intentional about building a line-of-business manager structure where each LOB manager is supported by a team of leads, and each lead, in turn, oversees and mentors their own teams. That structure creates daily, real-world mentorship—not just around waste operations, but around leadership, problem-solving, and sometimes even life itself. It fosters trust, accountability, and growth, and creates true mentor–mentee relationships that help people develop professionally while feeling supported personally.
We’ve also seen the impact of mentorship through initiatives like our Women in 91˛Öżâ group, which is led by seasoned professionals who are passionate about supporting and developing newer team members. Together, these approaches help transfer institutional knowledge that can’t be taught in a classroom, strengthen retention, and prepare the next generation to confidently lead the industry forward.
DB: A growing number of managers, drivers, and mechanics are retiring, and it is critical to have a strong recruitment strategy to attract and retain talent to companies and local governments. Most Gen Z employees want a career path, not just a job, and have ideas about “work-life balance” that may drive some old-timers crazy. The good news is that due to technology, the notion of working 9-to-5 is functionally obsolete in many positions, and smart employers are willing to work with employees to make sure the work gets done, even if it is not during traditional office hours.
WF: The labor market remained tight in 2025. The shortfall of drivers will continue to be an issue in 2026. We are seeing wages increase which, in turn, forces operators to rethink staffing models. Experienced CDL drivers and equipment operators had more employment options than ever before. When possible, companies leaned harder into automation, cross-training, and retention incentives. Employee retention is part of the solution and companies are well advised to double down on their focus to retain workers. Mentoring, coaching and good supervision are critical to the recruitment and retention process.
BS: We have certainly seen the loss of expertise in the waste industry at almost an exponential pace due to retirements. When you look at who has technical expertise around solid waste, it’s a pretty small group. On average, 50 percent of waste company employees tend to be drivers and then there are smaller percentages in different roles. When these professionals retire, if you don’t have a clear pathway for replacement, it can really hurt. They are the people who are managing, helping with litigation, aiding with permitting, managing the data that’s coming in on the sustainability side, etc., so losing a few of those people is critical. There’s a huge loss of institutional knowledge, so while the mentoring aspect is extremely important, one of the other things that we’ve seen through experiences with our scholarship program and younger generations coming out of school, is the expectations that people have coming into the workforce compared to the expectations of the older generations. There is a pretty significant difference terms of their life goals, their values, to other external factors. With the Gen Xers and Baby Boomers, your career was a huge part of the fabric of who you were as a worker and that doesn’t seem to be the case with the younger generations. They believe, “It is a component of my life, but it’s not the component of my life”, so I think there’s less importance placed on careers. I think COVID affected this quite a bit because there is certainly more of an expectation for a flexible work environment, which can be challenging if you need people to be onsite fixing trucks or out in the yard, etc. If somebody’s skill set is applicable across multiple industries, it will be challenging to keep them if the pay is not competitive or the work environment is not more challenging. There has been a strong shift in bringing people back into the office and this is an opportunity to build your organization’s culture. We’re seeing is that while people’s careers are important, they want to execute their career in an environment where they can enjoy the people they work with. The reason why most people leave their jobs tends to do with their work environment, whether it’s a boss that they can’t stand or coworkers that they have trouble with—culture becomes a pretty important factor in being able to retain the people once you have them on board. Most of the scholars EREF awards tend to have technical backgrounds, so we are a conduit for the technical personnel in the field and there are a number of key organizations that we work closely with. We find that if you can be in front of people and be more personal with them you can really help break down barriers or apprehensions that somebody might have about the field. I think we’ve been pretty successful in doing that. EREF has over 50 active scholars and the true success is just to be able to see those folks take meaningful positions in the waste field, whether it is at a waste company, a consulting firm, an NGO, or even a government agency.
RO: It’s incredibly important and I honestly see it as one of the biggest opportunities the industry has right now. We’re asking the next generation to step into an industry that’s becoming more technical, more regulated, and more visible, and we also have a real responsibility to make sure the door is open wider than it has been in the past, especially for women and historically underrepresented voices.
Seasoned professionals bring deep institutional knowledge around operations, customer relationships, and judgment that you learn from boots on the ground. When that experience is intentionally paired with younger professionals (many of whom are more comfortable with data, technology, and systems thinking) the results can be incredibly powerful. Mentorship doesn’t have to be formal or complicated, but it does have to be intentional, supportive, and inclusive if we want to build a stronger, more resilient industry.
MF: Any recruitment for the next generation is very important. People don’t want to drive a truck, they don’t want to do hard labor or work more than 40 hours a week; for the most part this generation is all about work-life balance and more technology. I think it starts with the talent you onboard and making sure that you pair them up with seasoned professionals, especially those who are about to retire. You want to transition a lot of that institutional knowledge that you really can’t teach. I could teach you the fundamentals of doing something, but you build institutional knowledge along the way, so unfortunately, when people retire, they take that with them. At 91˛Öżâ Pro we pair our future leaders with today’s leadership. In addition, you should have recruitment tactics that work, such as clear career paths, like promoting from within, give people real responsibility with accountability, pay for internships, rewarding for mentorships, and partner up with technical schools. You have to make knowledge transferable. Recruitment gets people in the door, but mentorship keeps knowledge in the business.
CL: We have the perfect storm happening in our Industry. We have an aging skilled workforce. A huge portion of drivers, mechanics, equipment operators, and supervisors are nearing retirement. Without intentional recruitment, the talent gap widens fast. Younger workers think differently – Gen Z and Millennials want purpose driven work, technology-enabled environments, clear growth pathways, strong safety culture, and work-life balance. It is important that the waste industry take this into account and use it to attract the next generation waste professionals. Public perception of the waste industry is still a barrier. Most people don’t realize the environmental impact of the work, that it provides career stability, and there is good pay and benefits, along with current technology. We must change the narrative. We need the seasoned veterans to mentor the younger generation before they retire. When a seasoned veteran retires, a whole generation of skill and knowledge is lost. That knowledge needs to be disbursed before they retire. Some ways this can be accomplished are through coaching or mentoring. Both generations can teach each other.
The industry is still high on the list of most dangerous jobs. How can the industry strengthen safety standards? What steps have you seen organizations to improve safety culture?
PR: Safety has to be cultural, not just procedural. That means leadership buy-in, constant training, open reporting, and empowering employees to speak up. We’re seeing more use of in-cab cameras, predictive maintenance, behavior-based safety programs, and near-miss reporting — all of which help identify risks before they become incidents. Our goal industrywide has to be that everyone goes home safe to their family every day. No exceptions.
DB: The industry generally has strong safety standards, and if every company, municipal sanitation department, and employee complied with them and applicable laws, we would have far fewer collisions, injuries, and fatalities. The industry needs to hold workers accountable for unsafe behaviors, buy safer trucks and equipment, and fully embrace the idea that a great safety culture is consistent with higher productivity and profitability. I’m seeing more companies using video and effective coaching to hold their workers accountable, but some smaller employers, unfortunately, still think that 100 percent safety compliance is impossible and gets in the way of finishing the route.
We don’t need more studies or research about why waste collection workers consistently are in the “top 10” most dangerous jobs in the US. We know small employers have a disproportionate number of the fatal incidents in the waste collection industry, and we know that the truck is a leading cause of a driver or helper’s death (e.g., falling off or overturning the truck).
WF: Safety performance is a bigger differentiator in our industry. I think facilities are getting safer mostly due to automation and advancements in ergonomics and engineering. Safety must be the number one priority of every single company. A good safety program requires commitment throughout the entire organization. It’s a lot of work and it requires an investment of both money and time. However, the ROI on safety is worth every penny. The good safety programs focus on the basics … education, training, worksite evaluations, field observations, coaching, accountability, and, most importantly, building and reinforcing a culture of safety.
BS: I think first and foremost is we really need to better understand what injuries and fatalities are occurring and the conditions where they are happening. We have a current project that’s in partnership with NWRA looking at fatalities being done by one of our research affiliates at the University of South Carolina. The whole purpose of the study is to understand if the OSHA data is correct. Some of the initial analysis suggests that there are some differences in what OSHA is reporting and what we’re seeing. However, one of the key things that has come out is an understanding of where the injuries and fatalities are occurring. The study shows that nearly 40 percent of fatalities have occurred when workers have fallen off the back of a truck or they are away from the truck, such as moving a cart across lanes of traffic and returning it back to the curb, so this starts to help us understand how to address safety as an industry. If you look at injuries for a separate study we did with the University of Central Florida, it shows that they tend to be more repetitive, resulting in back injuries. These are very different risk profiles, and I think for companies to look at safety requires a look at where is the most risk and how can programs be developed that can mitigate against those risks. This knowledge allows companies to act and make decisions with more confidence.
RO: Safety must be treated as part of operations, not a separate program. One of the most encouraging things I’ve seen is the shift toward proactive safety tools. Cameras, sensors, and systems that help prevent incidents instead of just documenting them after the fact. When safety is clearly valued, and invested in, behavior follows.
MF: It comes down to tracking what you’re doing and what the incidents are, whether they are property damage, injuries, accidents, etc., and then having a good training program, with reinforcement—doing spot checks, making sure people are complying, etc. I think incorporating AI with all these analytics, will help pick up on anything we need to address on the collection and post-collection side before it happens. Safety comes down to the fundamentals that we’ve been doing for the past five to 10 years, but now using AI and technology will help understand what’s happening and improve upon that. You also want to engineer safety wherever possible. For instance, automate routes to reduce physical exposure. Add cameras and proximity sensors to equipment, provide better lighting, and cab visibility, and lastly separate people from equipment at facilities.
CL: This is one of the most important conversations in today’s waste and recycling industry. Companies need to build and implement a robust safety culture. Get away from safety just being about compliance and make it the culture. Continuous safety training – this is one of the biggest gaps in the industry. Leading organizations are now implementing structured onboarding programs, certifying heavy equipment operators, using simulators for high-risk tasks, requiring annual recertification, and providing multilingual training materials. This creates consistency and reduces variability, which is a major cause of incidents.
Lithium-ion batteries continue to be a top concern, sparking fires in both trucks and at facilities. What are the most effective ways to be proactive in these situations? How can we effectively educate the public about keeping the material out of the waste stream?
PR: The biggest opportunities are prevention and education. That means better consumer awareness about what not to place in carts, safer collection options for batteries, and improved detection at facilities. Public education campaigns, retailer take-back programs, and clear labeling will be critical in reducing fires and protecting workers.
We’ve also learned that education is most effective when it starts early. Through programs like our Feed Mr. Murph recycling education initiative and visits from Miss Rainbow the Recycler in local schools, we talk with kids about what can and cannot go in the bin — including the risks around batteries. Those kids go home and often become the educators for their families, which is one of the most powerful ways to create safer habits across an entire community.
DB: The number of reported fires continues to increase in 2025, and based on my conversations with industry representatives in different parts of the country, the number of unreported fires has risen as well. We need a full court press on this issue to prevent the destruction of more recycling facilities and transfer stations. This requires facilities to be vigilant in using technology to identify lithium ion batteries and other dangerous items, if possible, before they get on the conveyor belt.
Educating customers and the general public is obviously important, but we should not kid ourselves that we are going to change the behavior of 340 million Americans and 40 million Canadians overnight.
Battery EPR is a terrific regulatory solution for a portion of the fires. If plaintiffs’ lawyers obtained multi-million dollar punitive damages awards against the lithium ion battery manufacturers, for knowingly selling products that are known to be dangerous, I suspect there would be even faster changes.
WF: The risk of improper disposal of lithium-ion batteries is threatening our people and destroying our trucks and facilities. Unfortunately, we will see more and more fires in collection trucks, transfer stations, recycling centers and disposal sites due to more lithium-ion batteries entering the waste stream. Government has failed to act and the lack of action is threatening critical infrastructure for managing society’s wastes. Additionally, the battery industry’s lack of action has been disappointing.
BS: Regardless of the education strategies we use, ultimately, it comes down to someone standing in front of their garbage bin and their recycling bin with a battery asking, “What do I need to do with this?” and you hope they will remember what they heard from a PSA on battery disposal and make the right decision. In an ideal world, we educate everybody perfectly, however there is also a need for other technologies that can detect batteries in waste loads. While everybody talks about recycling facilities and the huge problem of batteries, the most frequent fires that are caused by lithium batteries (54 percent) actually occur at landfills according to an EPA study that came out a couple of years ago, so fires are a challenge no matter what facility they’re going to. X-ray and heat sensor technologies can be used to detect lithium ion batteries in waste loads, perhaps even before they’re dumped. I don’t see this problem going away—we’ve looked at some of the lithium ion battery production numbers and they’re going up, not down, and we have a large number of lithium ion high capacity batteries in cars and other vehicles, where only 10 percent of those batteries have been disposed of, so that means you have 90 percent percent still actively being used in the market and most of those batteries are expected to be at a point of disposal within the next five to 10 years. Education can help, but it won’t solve the problem completely. We need to be thinking about other alternatives to manage the batteries that will still end up in the waste stream.
RO: There’s no single fix here; it has to be a layered approach. Facilities are investing in detection systems, fire suppression, and better training, which is critical. But we also have to accept that batteries will show up and design our systems accordingly.
Public education is the other piece, and it needs to be simple and repetitive. If it has a battery, it doesn’t go in the cart. Retail takeback, cart tagging, and clear messaging all help, but this is going to take a sustained campaign with coordination across the industry giants. As I often say, education is the first step in the supply chain and it’s always the most effective (and cheapest!) place to invest.
MF: Batteries are a problem, and I think that’s going to be a big regulatory issue in 2026 because of the fire risk and incidents that have happened. We will see stricter controls on lithium batteries in the waste stream. I know the NWRA has been really spearheading this issue here in Florida with the legislation. I keep reading about how lithium batteries are a big problem everywhere, and they are in practically everything. Certain states are developing EPR for this, so I think you’re going to see a greater responsibility on generators and higher penalties. 91˛Öżâ Pro has partnered up Call2Recycle at our Sanford location, by providing us with 55-gallon drums and fire-retardant material. We’ll collect the batteries and put them in this container, put the fire retardant in it to avoid a fire hazard and then they come pick it up, give us another two empty bins, and take the batteries to be properly handled. Right now, we’re starting with this location providing the community access to come by and drop off the batteries. It comes down to not only doing outreach about this issue, but also protecting the equipment by investing in fire suppression systems on trucks to avoid losing these expensive assets. Thermal cameras and heat sensors are going to be a major component, especially in on tipping floors, so if there’s anything sparking you can take care of it early. You also need to train your employees recognize the problem, isolate the situation, and get to safety. On the customer side, take a proactive approach with simple, repetitive public messaging can be effective. Tell them what the dangers are and where the outlets are to get rid the batteries.
CL: This is the leading cause of fires in refuse trucks, transfer stations, MRFs and landfills. Strong frontline protection is a must. The earlier a battery is spotted the safer for everyone. Using more technology to stop fires before they happen, such as thermal imaging cameras, AI-powered optical sorters, gas and smoke sensors, automated suppression systems, will be valuable tools in doing so. Educating the public on the dangers of lithium batteries would help as well. I know everyone knows they shouldn’t throw a lithium battery in trash, but they say it’s just one time. I don’t think the public understands the damage that just one small lithium battery can cause.
What are some other challenges in the waste and recycling industry and how can they be addressed?
PR: Labor shortages, rising costs, contamination, and public misunderstanding of recycling remain ongoing challenges across the industry. Addressing them requires a mix of technology investment, employee engagement, smarter policy, and clearer communication with customers.
Workforce development, in particular, is an area where companies can be proactive. At American 91˛Öżâ Control, we’ve invested in paying for team members who want to obtain their CDL, which helps individuals grow their careers while also strengthening our pool of qualified drivers. Programs like that create opportunity, improve retention, and provide long-term stability for operations. There’s no single solution to these challenges — it’s a sustained, long-term effort that requires commitment from the entire industry.
DB: Attracting and retaining new employee who are tech-literate and can mesh with existing personnel continues to be a challenge. Very few people grow up hoping they will work for a solid waste company. We need to change that and help people recognize that there are so many great opportunities for them in the solid waste industry – in every state and province, from coast to coast. Not just as drivers or mechanics, but as managers, analysts, and engineers.
WF: The cost of providing waste collection and recycling services continues to increase. The successful companies will be those who adjust and remain focused on mitigating rising costs by pushing prices. Other concerns for the year ahead include fires at facilities caused by lithium-ion batteries, labor shortages, and low commodity prices for some recyclables. Of course, there is a never-ending concern over the adoption of bad legislation, which occurs when the industry is not actively involved in decision making process. On the bright side, advancements and the implementation of new technologies continues to make the industry efficient and viable.
RO: One ongoing challenge is volatility, whether it’s commodity markets, policy changes, or shifting material streams. The industry is having to build more resilient business models that don’t rely on any single revenue source.
Another big challenge is complexity. Packaging is more complicated, regulations vary by state, and data requirements are growing. Addressing that means better coordination between policy, design, and operations … and a whole lot more honesty about what systems can realistically handle.
SJ: We face fires on an almost daily occurrence. We need more customer facing communication and education. While it is very difficult to determine the source, we need to communicate and support fines and other penalties for those who incorrectly dispose of Lithium-ion batteries. As well, we are increasing training and communication on how to handle a fire event.
MF: Contamination will continue happening, so standardizing recycling programs and guidelines across regions is essential. I think smarter cart labeling using AI with visual education or QR codes for audits, etc. is something that we could look at. Subscription service options—I was always a fan of them because if you’re paying for recycling, it’s because you’re going do the right thing, so I think that could work. And going back to AI, MRFs are being built with more technology in them. The recycling industry are building these mega-MRFs now with all this technology and that’s something 91˛Öżâ Pro wants to do as well. Some other challenges in 2026 are that the commodity markets for recycling remain extremely volatile, so I think you’re still going to see price swings from cardboard, plastics, and mixed paper, which is tough because it’s unpredictable revenue. Landfill capacity is going to be a huge challenge because there’s not many more landfills being built and if there are being developed, they are these mega landfills that are thousands of acres. So, as capacity starts running out, I think others that have landfills in these regions will be the players, since all that volume will go to them. I think in 2026, we will want to leverage technology early and plan long term rather than reacting to a five-year plan.
CL: Regulatory demands or pressures around PFAS, EPR and landfills will drive change in 2026. Workforce or staffing shortages will continue in 2026. Some action items to address are: modernizing recruitment strategies to appeal to younger workers, building mentorship programs to transfer knowledge from retiring workers, offering predictable schedules and career pathways, using automation and robotics to reduce reliance on manual labor, and a consistent training program for all. There is also pressure to improve resource recovery models. Industry leaders have noted that advancements in resource recovery models is becoming a major trend. Upgrading MRFs with AI and sensor-based sorting, expanding organics processing and composting programs, developing partnerships for textile, film, and hard-to-recycle materials, piloting reuse and circular economy initiatives, are all ways to addess some of these issues.
What do you think that 2026 will hold for the industry?
PR: I believe 2026 will be a year of refinement — taking the tools, systems, and lessons we’ve adopted and making them work better, more safely, and more efficiently. As the industry continues to evolve, success will be defined less by scale alone and more by how well companies serve the people and communities that depend on them every day.
The organizations that lead in 2026 will be those grounded in integrity, driven by passion, accountable in their decisions, and genuinely people-focused. Investing in employees, building trust with communities, and delivering consistent, reliable service will have just as much impact as any new technology. The future of this industry isn’t just about managing waste — it’s about creating long-term value for the communities we serve and managing resources responsibly for the generations ahead.
DB: There are a number of economic crosswinds impacting the industry right now, and whether those become predominantly headwinds or tail winds will determine what 2026 looks like a year from now. Will waste volumes grow, or will they stagnate due to a weak economy? The U.S. added fewer new jobs in 2025 than any other non-recession year since 2023. Economic growth drives waste volumes. What tariffs will solid waste equipment manufacturers pay in 2026 and how will that impact buying decisions by waste companies and local governments? What will the outcome be of the November 2026 midterm elections, and how will that impact EPA’s budget and federal policy? At this point, there are lots of questions, and not a lot of great answers.
WF: I think 2026 is going to be another great year for the industry. We are likely to see continued consolidation, and greater reliance on automation and data analytics to offset labor and cost pressures. I think prices for services will continue to rise as costs including labor and equipment have increased. I’m also keeping a close watch on the Federal Trade Commission as the gap between corporate sustainability commitments and reality grows. Several years ago, many companies made bold commitments and set some aggressive deadlines. Investors, regulators, communities and customers are increasingly challenging unverifiable claims. There will be a demand for waste and recycling partners who can help companies deliver measurable results.
RO: I think 2026 will be a defining year. We’ll see more consolidation, more pressure to perform, and more accountability. But, all of this should also mean more opportunity for growth and a different approach to interacting with society as an industry. The industry is moving toward being measured, funded, and managed like the critical infrastructure it is. If we lean into data, safety, and thoughtful system design, 2026 could be a year where real progress becomes visible.
SJ: As always, garbage is good! There is increased interest from the financial community in our industry, both in boom times and especially in a slower economy. We will see more consolidation, more regulation, more breadth of services offered, margins should expand, and prices will increase!
MF: I think 2026 will be a year people sharpening their pencils. For instance, I think we will see a slowdown in acquisitions compared to 2025. I think in 2026 you’re going see fewer deals, but higher quality deals. I don’t think companies are going to go crazy buying assets this year, I think there will be more focus, and I think landfills and disposal assets are going to be the most attractive targets. We will also see more technology and AI and people moving away from just piloting to implementation. For instance, you will see more real-time visibility into routes, carts, facilities, and safety performance. On the recycling side, I think we’ll be more selective on the type of recycling—in other words just because you’re a customer with significant volume doesn’t mean it is of best quality. Finally, the workforce strategy will be about retention, mentorship training, and establishing career paths for those that are switching over into the waste industry. I think overall that 2026 will be more infrastructure critical, with focus on safety, reliability, public perception and long-term planning.
CL: Recycling will remain volatile due to cooling inflation and some headwinds facing commodity prices. There will be tightening regulations in the PFAS, EPR, and landfill rules. More states are implementing organics policies to keep organics out of the landfill. AI and digital reporting will become of a core infrastructure. Industry growth will continue. Areas where growth will be strongest are digital services, recycling and resource recovery, organic and food waste management, advanced recycling, sustainability consulting.
BS: I think that many solid waste companies today seem to be managing more types of special or industrial wastes, so I think that is going to be an increasing trend. You’re seeing this integration of waste companies managing more solar-based disposal and move into medical waste. This integration of companies that are managing multiple types of waste streams is going to continue. I think PFAS is going to continue to be transformative for the field as we continue to figure how much is sequestered in the landfill and how much comes out—whether it’s in the gas or liquid form. Microplastics is another conversation that will continue to evolve and we will continue to see evolution and integration of AI tools beyond recycling into other areas—I think more prominently in route collection optimization and other areas of waste management. Data is going to become really important as we move from 2026 and beyond. When I started in this industry 20+ years ago, I would start talking about data and people were indifferent and now everyone needs data—the conversation has certainly changed. AI and automation are going to be the growth areas as well as using data to analyze trends. It is going to be an interesting year! | WA
