2026 will bring both challenges and opportunities for waste haulers. Rising costs, labor shortages, and technology gaps require careful planning, but strong market fundamentals and favorable financing options are creating real opportunities for waste operators to expand and thrive. By staying informed, you can position your business for success in the year ahead.
By Kevin McGinn and Jay Toluba
The waste industry is entering 2026 with a mix of caution and optimism. Rising costs, labor shortages, and evolving market dynamics are reshaping how small- and mid-sized waste-hauling companies approach growth and equipment investment. At Commercial Credit Group (CCG), we work closely with waste haulers across the country, giving us a front-row seat to these trends. Here is what we see ahead—and how smart financing strategies can help you stay competitive.
Cost Pressures Are Driving Caution
Over the past year, waste operators have faced significant cost increases across the board: equipment, maintenance, fuel, insurance, and more. These pressures have made many companies hesitant to make large capital purchases. Instead of replacing aging trucks, some operators are extending asset life through maintenance and repairs.
This caution is reflected in lower truck sales and higher dealer inventories. Financing challenges compound the issue: higher equipment costs mean higher monthly payments and increasing insurance premiums for new trucks raise affordability concerns. For many haulers, the question is not just ‘Can I buy a new truck?’, it is also ‘Can I afford the payment, insurance, and find a driver to operate it?’
Used Equipment Values Remain Strong
Interestingly, while new truck sales are down, used equipment values remain historically strong. Why? Upcoming emissions regulations for 2027 models are pushing up new truck prices, making late-model used trucks more attractive. In fact, many operators are leveraging strong resale values to navigate cash-flow issues. This trend has kept delinquencies and repossessions in the waste sector lower than in other industries.
For haulers, this means three things:
1. Your existing equipment may be worth more than you think.
2. Financing used equipment can be a smart move.
3. Equity in existing equipment can be used to get working capital.
Labor Shortages Are Shaping Fleet Strategy
The driver shortage remains one of the industry’s biggest operational challenges. To address this, many companies are shifting toward or adding under-CDL trucks, thereby expanding the labor pool and reducing hiring friction. These vehicles are also viewed favorably by lenders because they hold strong resale value and serve as reliable collateral.
While electric vehicles (EVs) have gained traction in other sectors, adoption in waste remains minimal—similar to the slow adoption of compressed natural gas (CNG) trucks a decade ago. For now, under-CDL trucks represent the most practical solution for operators looking to grow without being constrained by CDL driver availability, although under-CDL trucks may not be economically beneficial for high-density routes due to limited weight capacity, which requires more frequent trips to a disposal site.
Mergers and Acquisitions Activity And Market Dynamics
Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity is accelerating in the waste industry as both large public companies with strong cash reserves and private equity firms seek growth opportunities. This consolidation trend is reshaping competitive dynamics, creating both challenges and opportunities for small and mid-sized haulers. Larger players are leveraging economies of scale, advanced technology, and integrated service offerings to capture market share.
For independent operators, this means two things: first, valuations for well-run businesses remain attractive, making it a favorable time to consider strategic partnerships, private equity investors, or exit plans. Second, competition from consolidated entities will increase pressure on pricing and service differentiation. On the other hand, M&A activities can create opportunities for small and mid-sized companies to gain market share, as merging companies often face challenges with service as they attempt to integrate operations, and often face pressure to raise their prices.
Segment performance varies. Roll-off and commercial markets have remained stable. Residential hauling continues to perform well, but is sensitive to consumer spending patterns, which could fluctuate with broader economic conditions. Operators who diversify their service mix and maintain operational efficiency will be best positioned to thrive in this evolving landscape.
Hidden Risks: Fraud and Alternative Financing
Fraud in the waste industry is not typically about identity theft—it is about wire transfers and funding transactions. Remote processes like Docusign not only have streamlined operations, but have also introduced vulnerabilities. At CCG, we have seen a rise in wire fraud attempts, underscoring the need for vigilance. When sending payments via wire, be sure to verify wire instructions directly with your closing representative. And if you receive any e-mail notifications about your wire, verify that they have come directly from your lender before you initiate the transfer.
Another growing trend is the use of Merchant Cash Advances (MCAs). MCAs can create long-term cash-flow strain. Often disguised as working capital, MCAs offer quick money with limited approval criteria, but come with extremely high interest rates and automatic payment withdrawals from deposit accounts. Many operators do not fully understand the repayment structure, which can complicate future financing. Before considering an MCA, consult with a trusted financial partner to evaluate the impact on your business.
Operational Sophistication: The Competitive Divider
The industry is increasingly split between operators who rely on manual processes and those investing in technology. Advanced routing software, camera systems for service verification, and automated billing platforms are no longer optional—they are essential for improving cash flow, reducing disputes, and gaining visibility into costs.
As margins tighten, operators without these tools will struggle to scale or remain competitive. Investing in operational technology is as critical as investing in equipment.
Optimism Ahead: What the Data Says
Despite these challenges, optimism is strong among waste operators. In a recent CCG survey of waste industry customers:
• 40 percent of respondents are confident to very confident in the economy for the next 12 months, and another 30 percent are neutral about the economy.
• 80 percent plan equipment investments in 2026.
• 60 percent expect demand for their services to increase, while only 10 percent expect a decline.
This confidence suggests that while operators are cautious, they are also preparing for growth. Strategic financing will play a key role in turning that optimism into action.
Final Thoughts
2026 will bring both challenges and opportunities for waste haulers. Rising costs, labor shortages, and technology gaps require careful planning, but strong market fundamentals and favorable financing options are creating real opportunities for waste operators to expand and thrive. By staying informed and partnering with an experienced lender, you can position your business for success in the year ahead. | WA
Kevin McGinn is Co-Founder, Senior Vice President, and manages the National Accounts Division of Commercial Credit Group (CCG). He has more than 30 years of experience financing waste equipment.
Jay Toluba is Senior Vice President and manages the 91²Ö¿â Division at CCG. He has more than 30 years of experience in banking, credit, and equipment financing.
Together, Kevin and Jay bring decades of experience in equipment financing and industry insights to help waste operators navigate complex market conditions.
CCG understands the unique challenges of the waste industry. Their team works with haulers to structure financing that fits your cash flow, leverage equipment values, and navigate market uncertainty. CCG’s goal is simple: to be a trusted partner that helps you grow profitably and sustainably.
For more information, call (855) 893-0700, find CCG on LinkedIn at and YouTube at or visit .